Brazil: growth, adaptive capacity & new green technologies
environmental opportunities and antagonisms for Brazil in the 21st CenturyArchive for FT
Financial Crisis and Brazil pt.II, poll
The real, which on Thursday closed at R$2.36 against the dollar after the Banco Central’s announcement that it was putting US$50 bn into the currency futures market, may have reached fair value after a long period of overvaluation, according to John Authers.
Brazil and the Financial Crisis
Despite dramatic drops on the Bovespa; 
and the Real closing on Wednesday at R$2,28 against the dollar, after strong intervention (including the selling of dollars for the first time since 2003) by the Brazilian Central Bank, the economy is well set up to avoid the worst of the global financial crisis, argues Jonathan Wheatley of the Financial Times.
In spite of the extent of panic selling this week, many economists still expect Brazil to emerge relatively unscathed from the global financial crisis. Its banking sector underwent a state-sponsored restructuring in the 1990s and has little of the exposure to troubled assets afflicting US and European banks. Only about 10 per cent of bank credit is raised outside Brazil.
On Wednesday 8 October the IMF forecast 2009 Brazilian annual growth rate of 3.5%. Charles Collyns, Director of IMF Research stated that a slowdown in growth and weakening of the Real willl present the Brazilian Central Bank with the opportunity to bring interest rates down.
Infamous Brazilian shopper?
Jim O Neil, coiner of term BRIC, explains how internal demand from large emerging economies will compensate for adverse credit conditions in the US.
” According to our (Goldman Sachs) latest estimates, so far this decade there has been nearly as much global demand from the BRIC countries as from the US. Going forward, their share of global demand will start to move towards that of all the G7 nations .”
Petrobras, Tupi, legacy
New oil finds in the Tupi field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro have initiated a protracted debate about whether the government should create a new state owned oil company to feed revenue into social programs. An Economist piece summarises the debate here. Petrobras, still 40% State owned… Read the rest of this entry »
Soya, climate change, agribusiness
New research says Brazil will experience a 25% fall in soya exports over the next 12 years due to rising temperatures caused by the climate crisis, according to the FT. Sugar cane , which thrives in higher temps and high CO2 could could see a rise in production… Read the rest of this entry »
What China means to Brazil
With China passing USA as no.1 manufacturer here is a PDF report from Deutsche Bank looking at China Brazil trading relationship… Read the rest of this entry »
The real, carry trade, commodities
Video and article looking at prospects for the Real, carry trade currency of choice for some time, in light of the strengthening dollar and commodities sell off using Aus$ as comparison.
Audio interview: Problems for Amazon
Audio interview (eng) with Paulo Moutinho, Director of the Insitute for Environmental Research of Amazonia (IPAM). Lack of a cost attached to destroying standing forest as the overarching problem facing the region. Other topics broached include the dessicating impact of El Nino in excarcebating the problems of the spread of Amazonian forest fires.
Justin Yifu Lin fears inflation over US slowdown
World Bank Chief Economist talks to Martin Wolf about challenge facing developing economies. China should worry more about the impact of inflation, caused by rise in energy and food prices,than a US slowdown (which will impact on exports). Yesterday the Brazilian government announced an extension of agricultural credit to boost agricultural production as a means to bring down the price of food staples. A recent study revealed food prices up by 15% in Sao Paulo and 50% in Natal.
